There has been an increase in the corona case and positivity rate in Delhi for the past several days. Despite this, the hospitalization of corona patients in the national capital is relatively low. Experts say that based on the data of patients admitted to the hospital, it cannot be said that this wave of corona in Delhi is over.


Health Minister Satyendar Jain said on Wednesday that hospitalization shows that the current wave is at its peak and cases may soon subside. However, according to eminent epidemiologist Dr. Chandrakant Laharia, based on the hospital admission data, it cannot be concluded that the peak is over. This is because people tend to be hospitalized only a few days after they develop the disease. It has an interval of 6-7 days.

Depending on the criteria set for hospitalization entry

He said, “The daily number of cases and the positivity rate should be used to determine the peak. Hospitalization depends on the criteria created for entry. Of course, hospitalization is an important parameter for public health schemes, but it is a critical parameter for the pandemic.” Can’t decide the peak.”

The ground reality is different from epidemiological modeling

Dr. Arun Sharma, director of the Jodhpur-based National Institute for Implementation Research, said, “The peak transmission rate of a wave in epidemiology is determined by the number of infected people and the uninfected susceptible population. This can be plotted on a graph. But the ground reality is always different from epidemiological modeling.”

Positivity rate is the most important factor

Dr. Sharma said that the positivity rate is the most important factor, as the number of cases may increase or decrease depending on the number of tests done. When the positivity rate starts decreasing, we will know that we have crossed the peak. Most cases at Omicron are mild and do not require hospitalization, he said. In such a situation, whether the wave is at its peak or not, it cannot be decided by looking at the hospitalization.

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